CHANGE IN TRADE: North Africa Must Look South for Trade

Audrey Verdier-Chouchane ABIDJAN – Rising tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation, and persistent supply-chain disruptions are roiling international trade. The World Trade Organization projects a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade in 2025, which could deepen to 1.5% if tensions escalate. United Nations Trade and Development warns that policy uncertainty is eroding business confidence and will slow global growth to 2.3% in 2025. Against this backdrop, developing economies are under mounting pressure to diversify partnerships and reduce external dependencies. The pressure is particularly acute for North Africa. The region – comprising Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, and Tunisia – has long been tethered to European economic cycles. In 2023, the European Union accounted for 45.2% of North Africa’s trade, making the region vulnerable to any slowdown in European demand. At the same time, North Africa has played a marginal role in int...