WMO predicts 55% chance of weak La Niña conditions over next 3 months

 

There is a 55% chance of a weak La Niña impacting weather and climate patterns during the next three months, according to the latest Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Even though La Niña has a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal.   La Niña refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.   According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, as of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions. There is a 55% probability of crossing La Niña thresholds during the December–February 2025–2026 period.   For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65% to 75%. There is little likelihood of an El Niño – which typically has opposite impacts. “Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a key component of WMO’s contribution to support humanitarian operations. This climate intelligence helps us to avert millions of dollars in economic losses and to save countless lives,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.   National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor conditions over the coming months to help inform decision-makers.   Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU).  These take into account the influence of key climate variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.   The latest Update says that for December 2025 to February 2026, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the Northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere. Rainfall predictions resemble conditions typically observed during a weak La Niña.

Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and rainfall for the season December-February 2025/26. The tercile category with the highest forecast probability is indicated by shaded areas. The most likely category for below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal is depicted in blue, red, and grey shadings respectively for temperature, and orange, green and grey shadings respectively for rainfall. White areas indicate equal chances for all categories in both cases. The baseline period is 1993–2009.