The Next Phase of Uganda’s Growth Will Depend on Where Capital Flows
By Kaziro Kyambadde Uganda’s next phase of economic transformation will not be determined simply by how much capital the country can mobilize, but by where that capital flows, what it finances and what it ultimately enables. The Ugandan economy has given us reason for confidence. Growth has held at a strong pace, estimated at around 6.3 to 6.4 percent in both FY 2024/25 and FY 2025/26, and private-sector credit continues to expand. But growth and credit volumes alone do not tell us whether financing is reaching the businesses that will define Uganda’s next decade. Bank of Uganda data show commercial-bank shilling lending rates sitting in the high teens, reported at around 18.9 percent in April 2026, with some easing since. At that cost, financing struggles to reach investments whose returns are measured in years rather than months. The real debate is not only how much credit is available, but what it enables, and whether it can be made affordable and patient enough for investments that...